Comments on: The Mule trips up http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/ Obstinately objective Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:46:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Stubborn Mule http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7580 Stubborn Mule Wed, 05 May 2010 10:12:53 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7580 Business insider has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-retail-and-food-services-sales-vs-personal-consumption-2010-5" rel="nofollow">published a chart</a> that drills a bit deeper into these figures. Business insider has published a chart that drills a bit deeper into these figures.

]]> By: Bruce http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7543 Bruce Tue, 27 Apr 2010 14:32:05 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7543 A point about the increase in US consumption expenditure half way through 2008. It's possible the trend was confounded by the USD being in a hole mar-jul08. It then recovered strongly as the world fleed to its relative safety. The Jul-Dec08 collapse in personal expenditure correlates strongly with the USD recovery, as measured by the USD index. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND A stronger USD buys more imported goods at Walmart. Obviously the yuan is pegged more or less, but Japan, Europe, and Sth Korea and SE Asia export bulk stuff to US. A point about the increase in US consumption expenditure half way through 2008. It’s possible the trend was confounded by the USD being in a hole mar-jul08. It then recovered strongly as the world fleed to its relative safety.

The Jul-Dec08 collapse in personal expenditure correlates strongly with the USD recovery, as measured by the USD index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=DXY%3AIND

A stronger USD buys more imported goods at Walmart.
Obviously the yuan is pegged more or less, but Japan, Europe, and Sth Korea and SE Asia export bulk stuff to US.

]]> By: Lefty http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7521 Lefty Thu, 22 Apr 2010 20:09:44 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7521 It has just occurred to me that while surfing through the econo-blogs, I have been seeing the odd article here and there excitedly proclaiming "the US consumer is back!". I wonder if these bloggers have adjusted for inflation or simply taken the figures on face value? It has just occurred to me that while surfing through the econo-blogs, I have been seeing the odd article here and there excitedly proclaiming “the US consumer is back!”.

I wonder if these bloggers have adjusted for inflation or simply taken the figures on face value?

]]> By: Lefty http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7520 Lefty Thu, 22 Apr 2010 20:03:29 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7520 I had noticed that first chart was not adjusted for inflation thanks to reading your articles on how to be careful when reading charts. It does tell a somewhat different story. Consumption is growing but has a ways to go before reaching average rates. I would be quite intruiged if it could get back to previous levels any time soon. Who would be doing the consuming? Around 10% of their workforce is officially unemployed and around 5% more than that actually unemployed but not counted in the most commony presented statistics - would it be fair to say that these people are not participating in any great increased consumption but are more likely subtracting from it? That would leave those still employed having to increase their consumption even further than normal in order to make up for the loss of the now-unemployed, were consumption growth to return swiftly to pre-GFC levels. I had noticed that first chart was not adjusted for inflation thanks to reading your articles on how to be careful when reading charts. It does tell a somewhat different story. Consumption is growing but has a ways to go before reaching average rates.

I would be quite intruiged if it could get back to previous levels any time soon. Who would be doing the consuming? Around 10% of their workforce is officially unemployed and around 5% more than that actually unemployed but not counted in the most commony presented statistics – would it be fair to say that these people are not participating in any great increased consumption but are more likely subtracting from it?

That would leave those still employed having to increase their consumption even further than normal in order to make up for the loss of the now-unemployed, were consumption growth to return swiftly to pre-GFC levels.

]]> By: Stubborn Mule http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7517 Stubborn Mule Thu, 22 Apr 2010 11:59:03 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7517 <strong>James:</strong> that seems like a reasonable measure to adopt and it's interesting to see a different picture emerging compared to PCE/PI. James: that seems like a reasonable measure to adopt and it’s interesting to see a different picture emerging compared to PCE/PI.

]]> By: JamesGlover http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7515 JamesGlover Thu, 22 Apr 2010 07:58:53 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7515 Thanks - after much work here is the graph of US PCE/PDI for 2005 to 2010 which shows the plunge in 2008 and subsequent recovery. I am using PCE/PDI as a definition of "consumerism" or the desire to spend as much (or more) than we have. http://ur1.ca/wecr Thanks – after much work here is the graph of US PCE/PDI for 2005 to 2010 which shows the plunge in 2008 and subsequent recovery. I am using PCE/PDI as a definition of “consumerism” or the desire to spend as much (or more) than we have.
http://ur1.ca/wecr

]]> By: Stubborn Mule http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7508 Stubborn Mule Thu, 22 Apr 2010 02:36:35 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7508 <strong>James:</strong> unfortunately you cannot embed images in comments. However, you can attach images on the Mule Stable (click on the little paperclip icon next to the notice text box to upload a file) and then you can put a link here to your Stable post. James: unfortunately you cannot embed images in comments. However, you can attach images on the Mule Stable (click on the little paperclip icon next to the notice text box to upload a file) and then you can put a link here to your Stable post.

]]> By: JamesGlover http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7507 JamesGlover Thu, 22 Apr 2010 02:34:19 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7507 Thanks - I had a look at the data - there is a corresponding dip in Disposable Personal Income (DPI which I used instead of PI but about the same in the end) so this explains some of the change in PCE due (presumably) to increase in unemployment. Interestingly if you look at ratio PCE/DPI it sits at about 94-96% for most of the 00's and there is a sudden plummet to 90% in May 2008. This could also be due partly to unemployment as people spend a higher proportion of lower income on basics. It may also be due to a plummet in consumer confidence causing people to spend less on non-essentials. Interestingly it soars to 93% by March 2009 then plummets again to 90% by June 2009 and has risen steadily since to be about 94%. (Muleo: Is it possible to embed excel graphs in comments?) Thanks – I had a look at the data – there is a corresponding dip in Disposable Personal Income (DPI which I used instead of PI but about the same in the end) so this explains some of the change in PCE due (presumably) to increase in unemployment. Interestingly if you look at ratio PCE/DPI it sits at about 94-96% for most of the 00′s and there is a sudden plummet to 90% in May 2008. This could also be due partly to unemployment as people spend a higher proportion of lower income on basics. It may also be due to a plummet in consumer confidence causing people to spend less on non-essentials. Interestingly it soars to 93% by March 2009 then plummets again to 90% by June 2009 and has risen steadily since to be about 94%.

(Muleo: Is it possible to embed excel graphs in comments?)

]]> By: Stubborn Mule http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7506 Stubborn Mule Wed, 21 Apr 2010 22:26:37 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7506 <strong>James:</strong> personal income is here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PI and personal consumption here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCE James: personal income is here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PI and personal consumption here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCE

]]> By: JamesGlover http://www.stubbornmule.net/2010/04/the-mule-trips-up/comment-page-1/#comment-7505 JamesGlover Wed, 21 Apr 2010 22:24:30 +0000 http://www.stubbornmule.net/?p=2851#comment-7505 Thanks. Is that PI before Tax? Even though on the rise it doesn't seem much higher than the 60s. Where are the original numbers you are using? Thanks. Is that PI before Tax? Even though on the rise it doesn’t seem much higher than the 60s. Where are the original numbers you are using?

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