It has been a while since I have had a Reserve Bank poll here on the Mule. The Bank will be sitting down on Tuesday to decide whether or not they should adjust monetary policy. Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, was the first of the bank economists to start predicting that the next move in the cash rate would be down back in July. Since then, some other economists have come around to Bill’s perspective, particularly given the global financial chaos as European banks face a slow-motion bank run. Others are still expecting that the Reserve Bank’s bug-bear, inflation, will remain sufficiently threatening to ensure that the next move in rates is up. But perhaps it is too soon for the Bank to do anything at all.
What do you think? Get your vote in before the announcement is out at 2.30pm on Tuesday (Sydney time).
UPDATE: the results are in and Mule readers got it right: 93% of respondents thought there would be no change in cash rates, which was indeed the case. No-one predicted a rate rise.