Melbourne Cup

by Stubborn Mule on 1 November 2011 · 2 comments

I have been resting on my laurels for too long. Two years ago I had Shocking success tipping a winner for the Melbourne Cup. Needless to say the analysis was entirely bogus, but it was fun. Since then I have been reluctant to tarnish my spotless prediction record, but fortune favours the brave, so I really should try again.

Inspired by my last analysis, The Hoopla is tipping Lost in the Moment, which is a 5 year-old bay horse starting at barrier three and is carrying 53 kg. Unfortunately, my statistics tell me that over the last 150 races going back to 1861, there have been five Cups in which a horse with three words in its name has won, but never one with four words. That does not bode well for Lost in the Moment.

I will not give up entirely on a good formula, so based on the analysis from two years ago, I would still like to tip a bay horse with a handicap in the 50-55 kg range starting in the barrier range 1 to 5. This time, however, I will take into account the fact that over half of previous Cup winners only had a one-word name.

Three of the horses in barriers 1 through 5 have a one-word name, and they are all carrying around 53 kg:

  • Illo
  • Precedence
  • Modun

According to this form guide (which is the only one not blocked at my place of work, which limits access to “gambling sites” and yet is doubtless hosting many Melbourne Cup festivities), Precedence and Modun are geldings, which rules them out (they come second to horses in the chart below).

Horses

So: the Stubborn Mule tip for the 2011 Melbourne Cup is Illo.

For anyone foolish enough to take heed of this tip, I appreciate it, but you are foolish.

UPDATE: after a good run for much of the race (always a bad sign) Illo failed to win or even place. So it seems that the Mule has lost his crown.

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{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Ramanan November 2, 2011 at 6:04 pm

Nice picture here.

2 Stubborn Mule November 2, 2011 at 7:24 pm

It certainly was a very close finish!

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