Mixed prediction results: Cup 0, RBA 1

With Green Moon winning the Melbourne Cup, Fiorente in second place and Jakkalberry in third, none of the Mule’s tips even rated a place. That leaves a tipping record of one for three, and I am sure it will only get worse if I keep up this “analysis” in years to come. Fortunately, many of my readers are kind enough only to remember my success in tipping Shocking back in 2009.

The Stubborn Mule RBA poll fared somewhat better. The poll results were close, with 55% expecting no change in the cash rate and 45% looking for a 0.25% cut. As it turned out, Reserve Bank kept rates on hold, preferring to wait to see the effect of their October cut:

Further effects of actions already taken to ease monetary policy can be expected over time. The Board will continue to monitor those effects, together with information about the various other factors affecting the outlook for growth and inflation. At today’s meeting, with prices data slightly higher than expected and recent information on the world economy slightly more positive, the Board judged that the stance of monetary policy was appropriate for the time being.

By my count, this makes four correct predictions of the RBA decision from the last four Stubborn Mule polls. The moral of the story: ignore anything you read here about horses, but there might be something useful to learn about interest rates.

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